We’re dropping this column over the weekend because the tsunami of words written about the blockbuster deal in which Netflix has emerged as the leader in the backstretch of the race to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) for $72 billion. (If you’ve seen a larger number elsewhere of nearly $83 billion, the difference is that the latter number includes the WBD debt that Netflix would assume. We’ve chosen to focus on the number that Netflix is actually paying rather than the total value of the deal.)

While we expected that there would be many who would not look favorably on what is essentially a giant tech company (Netflix) swallowing up a legendary movie studio (Warner Bros.) that also happens to have a huge portfolio of cable media brands (HBO and Discovery) we admit being surprised by the deluge of disdain from so many corners, so quickly.

Even Jane Fonda has weighed in, saying that allowing this transaction (or any proposed deal for Warner Bros. Discovery to have new owners) is not just bad for Hollywood but also bad for democracy itself. She puts it in no uncertain terms:

"Consolidation at this scale would be catastrophic for an industry built on free expression, for the creative workers who power it, and for consumers who depend on a free, independent media ecosystem to understand the world. It will mean fewer jobs, fewer opportunities to sell work, fewer creative risks, fewer news sources and far less diversity in the stories Americans get to hear."

That’s pretty much the drumbeat from Hollywood, as a growing number of political figures.

We’ve read a lot of the writing on the reasons why this deal is such a bad one for the movie business. The theater business. The streaming business. The news business. The television business. Heck, pretty much any business. We won’t be surprised if the popcorn growers of America come out against this deal.

So to read a coherent and thoughtful defense of the idea that Netflix would be a good owner of a suddenly treasured institution like Warner Bros. was truly insightful. 

And that is precisely what M.G. Siegler has delivered in his take on the deal, posted on his Spyglass newsletter website. (As we said in the headline, we wish we had written it.)

We’ve followed his writing about the tech industry for longer than we can remember. If you have never heard of him, here is his bio.

Siegler does a fantastic job of explaining the position of each of the major Hollywood studios, and he accurately points out that only one movie studio has never changed hands—and it isn’t Warner Brothers. In fact, Warner’s (as it was once called) has changed hands four different times since an actual brother named Warner ran the place in the 1960s.

And a reminder that Netflix is only paying for the movie and TV studio and its streaming assets. That last part may be the thing that really draws the most scrutiny, because combining the #1 streamer in Netflix with the #3 one in HBO Max, does begin to smell like the kind of monopoly that the federal government has been putting a stop to since President Teddy Roosevelt was trust-busting the railroads in the early 1900s.

Warner Bros. Discovery still plans to split itself before selling to anyone, with the cable networks from CNN to HGTV to Discovery ending up in a standalone company called Discovery Global.

Bloomberg News offers a great inside look at how Netflix emerged as the bidder that WBD and its CEO, David Zaslav, would pick over bids from both Comcast and Paramount Skydance. (The linked article may be behind a paywall.)

Bloomberg also reports that CEO Zaslav is poised to become a billionaire when (and if) the Netflix deal is completed.

As we said in our Friday report, there is a long way to go before this deal possibly crosses the finish line. The current estimates now suggest it could be 18 to 24 months. A lot can happen in two years, including the midterm elections.

Should the Netflix/WBD deal never get done, Netflix is on the hook for a 5+ billion-dollar “breakup fee."

And unlike the mega deals pending in the television business, namely Nexstar-Tegna or Sinclair-Scripps, the Federal Communications Commission has no role in saying whether the Netflix/WBD can happen. That’s not to suggest that there won't be other parts of the government that will have something to say, both on the federal and state levels. Probably quite a bit, judging from the reaction in the first twenty four hours.

As movie legend Bette Davis said in the 1950 cinema classic, “All About Eve”: “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.” 

Maybe even as many as 729 of them to come.

-30-